TEORÍA DE LAS DECISIONES

# ➤ Examen Universitario: TEORIA DE LAS DECISIONES: Solución Evaluación Unidad 2

**Started on Tuesday, 29 October 2019**

**Completed on Tuesday, 29 October 2019**

**Time taken 1 hour 10 mins**

**Marks 10.00/10.00**

**Grade 50.00 out of 50.00 (100%)**

**Question 1**

This type of
question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these options
to correctly answer
the question. The student must select the response and mark it according to the think is
correct.

Statement:

To make decisions
with uncertainty, consider the following Cost Matrix where there are no known probability
for the occurrence of the states of nature:

**States of Nature**

**Courses of action φ1 φ2 φ3 φ**

**4**

**a1**16 5 4 7

**a2**8 10 9 13

**a3**4 8 17 5

**a4**5 7 15 9

If the maker
applies the criterion of Wald to the array of payments, the optimal decision is found in:

Select one:

a. a1 with 3
because it is the best course of action and a3 with 4 because it is the best course of
action.

b. a1 with 5
because it is the best course of action and a3 with 4 because it is the best course of
action.

**c. a1 with 4 because it is the best course of action and a3 with 4 because it is the best course of action.**

**Respuesta Correcta**

d. a1 with 7
because it is the best course of action and a3 with 4 because it is the best course of
action. The correct answer is: a1 with 4 because it is the best

course of action
and a3 with 4 because it is the best course of action.

**Your answer is correct.**

**The correct answer is: a1 with 4 because it is the best course of action and a3 with 4 because it is the best course of action.**

**Question 2.**

This type of
question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these options
to correctly answer
the question. The student must select the response and mark it according to the think is
correct.

Statement:

Consider the game
(2 * 4) that shows the following Payment Matrix:

Player B

**Player A 1 2 3 4**

**1**4 7 5 -3

**2**8 3 10 8

Player A's expected
payouts correspond to player B's pure strategies.

Payments expected
from Player B correspond to player A.'s pure strategies.

The pure strategies
for player A present an alternative, line 1 corresponds to:

Select one:

a. 7Y1 - 3

**b. -4Y1+8**

**Respuesta Correcta**

c. 10Y1 + 3

d. 4Y1 - 3

**Your answer is incorrect.**

**The correct answer is: -4Y1+8**

**Question 3.**

This type of
question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these options
to correctly answer
the question. The student must select the response and mark it according to the think is
correct.

Statement:

Savage Criterion:
Transforms the result matrix into an error matrix. In this way, the decision maker can easily
assess the opportunity cost incurred by making a wrong decision. For the above, the best
result must be determined for each situation that may arise.

According to the
table of costs that is presented below the technology to be chosen, being the least of them
would be:

Select one:

**a. Technology 1 with a value of 170.**

**Respuesta Correcta**

b. Technology 1
with a value of 190.

c. Technology 2
with a value of 210.

d. Technology 2
with a value of 230.

**Your answer is incorrect.**

**The correct answer is: Technology 1 with a value of 170.**

**Question 4.**

Statement:

Savage Criterion:
Transforms the result matrix into an error matrix. In this way, the decision maker can easily
assess the opportunity cost incurred by making a wrong decision. For the above, the best
result must be determined for each situation that may arise.

According
to the table of costs that is presented below the technology that should not be chosen,
being the largest of them would be:

Select
one:

a.
Technology 2 with a value of 350.

**b. Technology 2 with a value of 500.**

**Respuesta Correcta**

c.
Technology 2 with a value of 250.

d.
Technology 1 with a value of 210.

**Your answer is correct.**

**The correct answer is: Technology 2 with a value of 500.**

**Question 5.**

Statement:

The
Laplace criterion for situations under the criteria of uncertainty raised by
the use of all the
values that have been previously obtained, do not despise nothing so we work
with all the
fields. The logic that applies is to assign to each value the same probability
(1/n) in such a
way that they are all on equal terms.

According
to the Table shown below, the technology must be adapted for having the largest expected
value for the situation presented is:

p(j)
(1/3) (1/3) (1/3)

**Do not**

**adapt Fits well Fits very**

**all right**

**Technology 1**680 550 900

**Technology 2**980 650 400

**Technology 3**560 800 950

Select
one:

a.
Technology 2 with a value of 750.

b.
Technology 2 with a value of 870.

c.
Technology 1 with a value of 670.

**d. Technology 3 with a value of 770.**

**Respuesta Correcta**

**Your answer is correct.**

**The correct answer is: Technology 3 with a value of 770.**

**Question 6.**

Statement:

The
Wald or pessimistic criterion for situations under uncertainty criteria is a
more conservative
criterion, because it raises the worst situation that can be presented to the decision
maker once an alternative has been chosen. That is why among the possible lower alternatives
will always choose the largest.

According
to the table below, the technologies that should not be adapted to have the lowest
expected pessimistic value are:

Select
one:

a.
Technology 3 with a value of 480.

b.
Technology 1 with a value of 610.

c.
Technology 1 with a value of 580.

**d. Technology 2 with a value of 550.**

**Respuesta Correcta**

**Your answer is incorrect.**

**The correct answer is: Technology 2 with a value of 550.**

**Question 7.**

Statement:

The
criterion of Laplace for situations under uncertainty criteria raises the use
of all the values
that have been obtained previously, we do not despise anything by which we work with
all the fields. The logic that applies is to assign to each value the same
probability (1 / n)
in such a way that all are equal.

According
to the table below, the technology that must be adapted to have the highest expected
value for the situation presented is:

Select
one:

a.
Technology 2 with a value of 730.

b.
Technology 3 with a value of 740.

c.
Technology 1 with a value of 750.

**d. Technology 2 with a value of 740.**

**Respuesta Correcta**

**Your answer is incorrect.**

**The correct answer is: Technology 2 with a value of 740.**

**Question 8.**

Statement:

Savage
Criterion: Transforms the result matrix into an error matrix. In this way, the
decision maker
can easily assess the opportunity cost incurred by making a wrong decision. For
the above,
the best result must be determined for each situation that may arise.

According
to the table of costs that is presented below the technology to be chosen,
being the
least of them would be:

Select
one:

a.
Technology 1 with a value of 210.

b.
Technology 2 with a value of 350.

**c. Technology 1 with a value of 200.**

**Respuesta Correcta**

d.
Technology 2 with a value of 250.

**Your answer is correct.**

**The correct answer is: Technology 1 with a value of 200.**

**Question 9.**

Statement:

According
to the table of costs that is presented below the technology that should not be chosen,
being the largest of them would be:

Select
one:

a.
Technology 3 with a value of 550.

b.
Technology 3 with a value of 530.

**c. Technology 2 with a value of 550.**

**Respuesta Correcta**

d.
Technology 2 with a value of 530.

**Your answer is incorrect.**

**The correct answer is: Technology 2 with a value of 550.**

**Question 10.**

Statement:

Consider the game
(2 * 4) that shows the following Payment Matrix:

Player B

Player A 1 2 3 4

1 4 7 5 -3

2 8 3 10 8

Player A's expected
payouts correspond to player B's pure strategies.

Payments expected
from Player B correspond to player A.'s pure strategies.

The Maximin point
to determine the optimal strategy of player A is:

Select
one:

a.
1/5

b.
1/4

c.
1/7

**d. 1/3 The correct answer is: 1/3**

**Respuesta Correcta**

**Your answer is correct.**

**The correct answer is: 1/3**

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