TEORÍA DE LAS DECISIONES
➤ Examen Universitario: TEORIA DE LAS DECISIONES: Solución Evaluación Unidad 2
Started on Tuesday,
29 October 2019
Completed on
Tuesday, 29 October 2019
Time taken 1 hour
10 mins
Marks
10.00/10.00
Grade
50.00 out of 50.00 (100%)
Question 1
This type of
question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these options
to correctly answer
the question. The student must select the response and mark it according to the think is
correct.
Statement:
To make decisions
with uncertainty, consider the following Cost Matrix where there are no known probability
for the occurrence of the states of nature:
States of Nature
Courses of action φ1 φ2 φ3 φ4
a1 16 5 4 7
a2 8 10 9 13
a3 4 8 17 5
a4 5 7 15 9
If the maker
applies the criterion of Wald to the array of payments, the optimal decision is found in:
Select one:
a. a1 with 3
because it is the best course of action and a3 with 4 because it is the best course of
action.
b. a1 with 5
because it is the best course of action and a3 with 4 because it is the best course of
action.
c. a1 with 4
because it is the best course of action and a3 with 4 because it is the best course of
action. Respuesta Correcta
d. a1 with 7
because it is the best course of action and a3 with 4 because it is the best course of
action. The correct answer is: a1 with 4 because it is the best
course of action
and a3 with 4 because it is the best course of action.
Your answer is correct.
The correct answer
is: a1 with 4 because it is the best course of action and a3 with 4 because it is the
best course of action.
Question 2.
This type of
question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these options
to correctly answer
the question. The student must select the response and mark it according to the think is
correct.
Statement:
Consider the game
(2 * 4) that shows the following Payment Matrix:
Player B
Player A 1 2 3 4
1 4 7 5 -3
2 8 3 10 8
Player A's expected
payouts correspond to player B's pure strategies.
Payments expected
from Player B correspond to player A.'s pure strategies.
The pure strategies
for player A present an alternative, line 1 corresponds to:
Select one:
a. 7Y1 - 3
b. -4Y1+8
c. 10Y1 + 3
d. 4Y1 - 3
Your answer is
incorrect.
The correct answer
is: -4Y1+8
Question 3.
This type of
question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these options
to correctly answer
the question. The student must select the response and mark it according to the think is
correct.
Statement:
Savage Criterion:
Transforms the result matrix into an error matrix. In this way, the decision maker can easily
assess the opportunity cost incurred by making a wrong decision. For the above, the best
result must be determined for each situation that may arise.
According to the
table of costs that is presented below the technology to be chosen, being the least of them
would be:
Select one:
a. Technology 1
with a value of 170.
b. Technology 1
with a value of 190.
c. Technology 2
with a value of 210.
d. Technology 2
with a value of 230.
Your answer is
incorrect.
The correct answer
is: Technology 1 with a value of 170.
Question 4.
This type of
question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these options
to correctly answer
the question. The student must select the response and mark it according to the think is
correct.
Statement:
Savage Criterion:
Transforms the result matrix into an error matrix. In this way, the decision maker can easily
assess the opportunity cost incurred by making a wrong decision. For the above, the best
result must be determined for each situation that may arise.
According
to the table of costs that is presented below the technology that should not be chosen,
being the largest of them would be:
Select
one:
a.
Technology 2 with a value of 350.
b.
Technology 2 with a value of 500. Respuesta Correcta
c.
Technology 2 with a value of 250.
d.
Technology 1 with a value of 210.
Your
answer is correct.
The
correct answer is: Technology 2 with a value of 500.
Question 5.
This
type of question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these
options to correctly
answer the question. The student must select the response and mark it according to
the think is correct.
Statement:
The
Laplace criterion for situations under the criteria of uncertainty raised by
the use of all the
values that have been previously obtained, do not despise nothing so we work
with all the
fields. The logic that applies is to assign to each value the same probability
(1/n) in such a
way that they are all on equal terms.
According
to the Table shown below, the technology must be adapted for having the largest expected
value for the situation presented is:
p(j)
(1/3) (1/3) (1/3)
Do
not
adapt Fits well Fits very
all
right
Technology
1 680 550 900
Technology
2 980 650 400
Technology
3 560 800 950
Select
one:
a.
Technology 2 with a value of 750.
b.
Technology 2 with a value of 870.
c.
Technology 1 with a value of 670.
d.
Technology 3 with a value of 770. Respuesta Correcta
Your
answer is correct.
The
correct answer is: Technology 3 with a value of 770.
Question 6.
This
type of question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these
options to correctly
answer the question. The student must select the response and mark it according to
the think is correct.
Statement:
The
Wald or pessimistic criterion for situations under uncertainty criteria is a
more conservative
criterion, because it raises the worst situation that can be presented to the decision
maker once an alternative has been chosen. That is why among the possible lower alternatives
will always choose the largest.
According
to the table below, the technologies that should not be adapted to have the lowest
expected pessimistic value are:
Select
one:
a.
Technology 3 with a value of 480.
b.
Technology 1 with a value of 610.
c.
Technology 1 with a value of 580.
d.
Technology 2 with a value of 550.
Your
answer is incorrect.
The
correct answer is: Technology 2 with a value of 550.
Question 7.
This
type of question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these
options to correctly
answer the question. The student must select the response and mark it according to
the think is correct.
Statement:
The
criterion of Laplace for situations under uncertainty criteria raises the use
of all the values
that have been obtained previously, we do not despise anything by which we work with
all the fields. The logic that applies is to assign to each value the same
probability (1 / n)
in such a way that all are equal.
According
to the table below, the technology that must be adapted to have the highest expected
value for the situation presented is:
Select
one:
a.
Technology 2 with a value of 730.
b.
Technology 3 with a value of 740.
c.
Technology 1 with a value of 750.
d.
Technology 2 with a value of 740.
Your
answer is incorrect.
The
correct answer is: Technology 2 with a value of 740.
Question 8.
This
type of question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these
options to correctly
answer the question. The student must select the response and mark it according to
the think is correct.
Statement:
Savage
Criterion: Transforms the result matrix into an error matrix. In this way, the
decision maker
can easily assess the opportunity cost incurred by making a wrong decision. For
the above,
the best result must be determined for each situation that may arise.
According
to the table of costs that is presented below the technology to be chosen,
being the
least of them would be:
Select
one:
a.
Technology 1 with a value of 210.
b.
Technology 2 with a value of 350.
c.
Technology 1 with a value of 200. Respuesta Correcta
d.
Technology 2 with a value of 250.
Your
answer is correct.
The
correct answer is: Technology 1 with a value of 200.
Question 9.
This
type of question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these
options to correctly
answer the question. The student must select the response and mark it according to
the think is correct.
Statement:
Savage
Criterion: Transforms the result matrix into an error matrix. In this way, the
decision maker
can easily assess the opportunity cost incurred by making a wrong decision. For
the above,
the best result must be determined for each situation that may arise.
According
to the table of costs that is presented below the technology that should not be chosen,
being the largest of them would be:
Select
one:
a.
Technology 3 with a value of 550.
b.
Technology 3 with a value of 530.
c.
Technology 2 with a value of 550.
d.
Technology 2 with a value of 530.
Your
answer is incorrect.
The
correct answer is: Technology 2 with a value of 550.
Question 10.
This type of
question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these options
to correctly answer
the question. The student must select the response and mark it according to the think is
correct.
Statement:
Consider the game
(2 * 4) that shows the following Payment Matrix:
Player B
Player A 1 2 3 4
1 4 7 5 -3
2 8 3 10 8
Player A's expected
payouts correspond to player B's pure strategies.
Payments expected
from Player B correspond to player A.'s pure strategies.
The Maximin point
to determine the optimal strategy of player A is:
Select
one:
a.
1/5
b.
1/4
c.
1/7
d.
1/3 The correct answer is: 1/3
Your
answer is correct.
The
correct answer is: 1/3
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