► Curso: TEORÍA DE LAS DECISIONES: Evaluación Universitaria 2019

Started on Thursday, 10 October 2019 

State Finished

Completed on Thursday, 10 October 2019 

Time taken 1 hour 10 mins

Marks 10.00/10.00

Grade 50.00 out of 50.00 (100%)

Question 1.

These questions consist of two propositions as well: a statement and a reason, nations by the word why. You must examine the veracity of each proposition and the theoretical relationship that unites them.

Statement:

The deterministic models of decision, are known with certainty all the data of the reality that represent because if one or more data are referred to only in terms of probability, the model is called, probabilistic, random or stochastic.

Select one:

a. The affirmation and the reason and reason are true, but the reason is not a correct explanation of the statement.  Correct Answer

b. The affirmation and reason are true and the reason is a correct explanation of the statement. 

c. The statement is false, but the reason is a proposition true.

d. The statement is true, but the reason is a false proposition.

Your answer is correct.

The correct answer is: The affirmation and the reason and reason are true, but the reason is not a correct explanation of the statement.

Question 2

This question consists of two propositions as well: a statement and a reason, nations by the word why. You must examine the veracity of each proposition and the theoretical relationship that unites them.

Statement:

The following decision tree presents the states of nature and their probabilities to decide if you do or do not develop a new product, taking into account whether or not the hiring of a consultant of a market research firm:

Where:

A1: Develop the new product.

A2: Not to develop the new product.

A, B, C: States of nature and their probabilities.

A: Sell high.

B: Sell media.

C: Sell low.

AP, BP, Cp: Likely to reliability.

The expected value in the node 3 corresponds to a mathematical calculation of 1870 monetary units because the expected value is the sum of the states of nature multiplied by the odds associated with each one of its branches.

Select one:

a. The affirmation and reason are true and the reason is a correct explanation of the statement.

b. The statement is false, but the reason is a proposition true.  Correct Answer

c. The affirmation and reason are true, but the reason is not a correct explanation of the statement. The correct answer is: The affirmation and reason are true and the reason is a correct explanation of the statement.

d. The statement is true, but the reason is a false proposition.

Your answer is Correct.

The correct answer is: The statement is false, but the reason is a proposition true.

Question 3

This type of question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these options to correctly answer the question. The student must select the response and mark it according to the think is correct.

Statement:

A company dedicated to the manufacture of certain parts to assemble factory vehicles must decide whether a new piece in its main plant, or if on the contrary you purchase from a vendor Korean. The utilities depend on the demand for the product. The table shows the projected profits, in millionss of pesos.

Table 1. Decision process for the marketing of the product

According to the above information, the Expected Value With Perfect Information (EVwithPI) of the problem is:

Select one:

a. 47.75 millions.

b. 48.75 millions. Correct Answer

c. 47.25 millions.

d. 46.5 millions.

Your answer is correct.

The correct answer is: 48.75 millions.

Question 4.

This type of question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these options to correctly answer the question. The student must select the response and mark it according to the think is correct.

Statement:

A company dedicated to the manufacture of certain parts to assemble factory vehicles must decide whether a new piece in its main plant, or if on the contrary you purchase from a vendor Korean. The utilities depend on the demand for the product. The table shows the projected profits, in millionss of pesos.

Table 1. Decision process for the marketing of the product

At the same time, the resulting decision tree is:

According to the above information, the Expected Value Without Perfect Information (EVwithoutPI) of the problem is:

Select one:

a. 47 millions.

b. 43.75 millions. Correct Answer

c. 45.5 millions.

d. 44.75 millions.

Your answer is correct.

The correct answer is: 43.75 millions.

Question 5

This type of question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these options to correctly answer the question. The student must select the response and mark it according to the think is correct.

Statement:

When in the environment are the states of nature, but not the probability of each of them; when the decision-maker knows that states of nature can be presented and the probability that each one of them, when they do not even know the possible states of nature or when the decision maker knows with absolute certainty the states of nature that are going to occur. The level of information determines the type of environment of the decision, in the order presented, the types of structured decision are:

Select one:

a. Unstructured uncertainty, Risk, Uncertainty and certainty. 

b. Certainty, structured Uncertainty, risk and uncertainty.

c. Non-structured Risk, Uncertainty, Uncertainty, structured and certainty.

d. Uncertainty, Risk, Uncertainty and certainty. Correct Answer

Your answer is Correct.

The correct answer is: Uncertainty, Risk, Uncertainty and certainty.

Question 6.

This type of question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these options to correctly answer the question. The student must select the response and mark it according to the think is correct.

Statement:

A company dedicated to the manufacture of certain parts to assemble factory vehicles must decide whether a new piece in its main plant, or if on the contrary you purchase from a vendor Korean. The utilities depend on the demand for the product. The table shows the projected profits, in millionss of pesos.

Table 1. Decision process for the marketing of the product

At the same time, the resulting decision tree is:

According to the above information, the Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) of the problem is:

Select one:

a. 5 millions.

b. 3.5 millions. Correct Answer

c. 3 millions.

d. 4 millions.

Your answer is correct.

The correct answer is: 3 millions.

Question 7.

This question consists of two propositions as well: a statement and a reason, nations by the word why. You must examine the veracity of each proposition and the theoretical relationship that unites them.

Statement:

The following decision tree presents the states of nature and their probabilities to decide whether or not develops a new product, taking into account whether or not the hiring of a consultant of a market research firm:

Where:

A1: Develop the new product.

A2: Not to develop the new product.

A, B, C: States of nature and their probabilities

A: Sell high.

B: Sell media.

C: Sell low.

AP, BP, Cp: Likely to reliability

The expected value in the node 9 corresponds to a mathematical calculation of 2182.649 monetary units because the value esparado is the sum of the states of nature multiplied by the odds associated with each one of its branches.

Select one:

a. The statement is false, but the reason is a proposition true. Correct Answer

b. The affirmation and reason are true and the reason is a correct explanation of thestatement.

c. The affirmation and reason are true, but the reason is not a correct explanation of the statement.

d. The statement is true, but the reason is a false proposition. The correct

answer is: The statement is false, but the reason is a proposition true.

Your answer is Correct.

The correct answer is: The statement is false, but the reason is a proposition true.

Question 8.

This type of question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these options to correctly answer the question. The student must select the response and mark it according to the think is correct.

Statement:

A company dedicated to the manufacture of certain parts to assemble factory vehicles must decide whether a new piece in its main plant, or if on the contrary you purchase from a vendor Korean. The utilities depend on the demand for the product. The table shows the projected profits, in millionss of pesos.

Table 1. Decision process for the marketing of the product

Alternative decision

State of nature

Low

demand

Medium

demand

High

demand

Manufactured 28 40 60

Buy 30 50 70

Probability ∑= 1 0,45 0,25 0,3

At the same time, the resulting decision tree is:

According to the above information, the Expected Value Without Perfect Information (EVwithoutPI) of the problem is:

Select one:

a. 44 millions 

b. 45 millions

c. 47 millions  Correct Answer

d. 42 millions

The correct answer is: 47 millions.

Question 9.

This type of question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these options to correctly answer the question. The student must select the response and mark it according to the think is correct.

Statement:

In a decision-making process in two parts that make up the use of the model are:

Select one:

a. Should not be applicable to other similar problems.

b. Must be accurate and complete in the relationships.

c. Search relationships are essential in the development of the model. The correct answer is: Search relationships are essential in the development of the model.

d. Should cover all the possibilities that gives real life.

Your answer is correct.

The correct answer is: Search relationships are essential in the development of the model.

Question 10.

This type of question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these options to correctly answer the question. The student must select the response and mark it according to the think is correct.

Statement:

An example of an indicator of effectiveness is?:

Select one:

a. The level of satisfaction of employees. 

b. The percentage of products returned by customers.

c. The percentage of completion of the production units. Correct Answer

d. The quantities of increase for each computer that is achieved in a company.

Your answer is correct.

The correct answer is: The percentage of completion of the production units.