TEORÍA DE LAS DECISIONES
► Fase 5: TEORÍA DE LAS DECISIONES Examen Universitario
Comenzó
el 31 de octubre de 2019
Completado
el 31 de octubre de 2019
Tiempo
tomado 56 minutos
Marcas
10.00 / 10.00
Calificar;
nota 50.00 de 50.00 ( 100 %)
Pregunta
1
Este
tipo de pregunta consta de una declaración y cuatro opciones. Solo una de estas opciones
para responder correctamente la pregunta. El alumno debe seleccionar la respuesta
y marcarla de acuerdo con la opinión correcta.
Declaración:
Considere
el juego (2 * 4) que muestra la siguiente Matriz de pago:
Jugador
B
Jugador
A 1 2 3 4 4
1 44 77 55 -3
2 8 3 10 8
Los
pagos esperados del jugador A corresponden a las estrategias puras del jugador
B.
Los
pagos esperados del jugador B corresponden a las estrategias puras del jugador
A.
Las
estrategias puras para el jugador A presentan una alternativa, la línea 2 corresponde
a:
Seleccione
uno:
a.
5Y1 - 3
b.
-5Y2 + 8
c.
10Y1 + 3
d.
6Y1 - 5
Tu
respuesta es incorrecta.
La
respuesta correcta es: -5Y2 + 8
Pregunta 2.
The criterion of Hurwicz. This criterion covers a
range of attitudes, from the most optimistic to the most pessimistic. In order to apply this
criterion of decision, the decision maker should choose his coefficient of optimism (β) according to the experience of other similar situations, which goes from 0 to 1; therefore the
coefficient of pessimism will be 1 - β.
According to the table below, considering that the
optimistic value is 0.8 and the pessimistic value is 0.2. The technology that should be adapted to
have the highest expected value is:
Select one:
a. Technology 2 with a value of 760.
b. Technology 2 with a value of 780.
c. Technology 2 with a value of 710.
d. Technology 2 with a value of 750.
Your answer is correct.
The correct answer is: Technology 2 with a value of
780.
Pregunta 3.
This type of question consists of a statement, and
four options. Only one of these options to correctly answer the question. The student must select
the response and mark it according to the think is correct.
Statement:
Consider the game (2 * 4) that shows the following
Payment Matrix:
Player B
Player A 1 2 3 4
1 4 7 5 -3
2 8 3 10 8
Player A's expected payouts correspond to player B's
pure strategies.
Payments expected from Player B correspond to player
A.'s pure strategies.
The game value for player B is:
Select one:
a. 13/3
b. 12/5
c. 15/3
d. 17/5
Your answer is correct.
The correct answer is: 13/3
Pregunta 4.
This type of question consists of a statement, and
four options. Only one of these options to correctly answer the question. The student must select
the response and mark it according to the think is correct.
Statement:
The Wald or pessimistic criterion for situations under
uncertainty criteria is a more conservative criterion, because it raises the worst
situation that can be presented to the decision maker once an alternative has been chosen.
That is why among the possible lower alternatives will always choose the largest.
According to the table below, the technologies that
should not be adapted to have the lowest expected pessimistic value are:
Select one:
a. Technology 3 with a value of 480.
b. Technology 1 with a value of 580.
c. Technology 2 with a value of 550.
d. Technology 1 with a value of 610.
Your answer is correct.
The correct answer is: Technology 2 with a value of
550.
Pregunta 5.
This type of question consists of a statement, and
four options. Only one of these options to correctly answer the question. The student must select
the response and mark it according to the think is correct.
Statement:
In game theory these are considered legal when:
Select one:
a. The result of the game is balanced and one.
b. The outcome of the game is greater than one.
c. The result of the game is balanced and zero.
d. The result of the game is less than one.
Your answer is incorrect.
The correct answer is: The result of the game is
balanced and zero.
Pregunta 6.
This type of question consists of a statement, and
four options. Only one of these options to correctly answer the question. The student must select
the response and mark it according to the think is correct.
Statement:
The Wald or pessimistic criterion for situations under
uncertainty criteria is a more conservative criterion, because it raises the worst
situation that can be presented to the decision maker once an alternative has been chosen.
That is why among the possible lower alternatives will always choose the largest.
According to the table below, the technologies that
should be adapted to have the highest expected value are:
Select one:
a. Technology 1 with a value of 550.
b. Technology 3 with a value of 500.
c. Technology 1 with a value of 900.
d. Technology 2 with a value of 400.
Your answer is incorrect.
The correct answer is: Technology 1 with a value of
550.
Pregunta 7.
This type of question consists of a statement, and
four options. Only one of these options to correctly answer the question. The student must select
the response and mark it according to the think is correct.
Statement:
To make decisions with uncertainty, consider the
following Cost Matrix where there are no known probability for the occurrence of the states of
nature:
States of Nature
Courses of action φ1 φ2 φ3 φ4
a1 16 5 4 7
a2 8 10 9 13
a3 4 8 17 5
a4 5 7 15 9
If the maker applies the criterion of Hurwicz, the
optimal decision is found in:
Select one:
a. a1 with 10.5 because it is the best course of
action and a4 with 10 because it is the best course of action.
b. a1 with 11 because it is the best course of action
and a4 with 10 because it is the best course of action.
c. a1 with 10.8 because it is the best course of
action and a4 with 10 because it is the best course of action.
d. a1 with 10 because it is the best course of action
and a4 with 10 because it is the best course of action.
Your answer is correct.
The correct answer is: a1 with 10 because it is the
best course of action and a4 with 10 because it is the best course of action.
Pregunta 8.
This type of question consists of a statement, and
four options. Only one of these options to correctly answer the question. The student must select
the response and mark it according to the think is correct.
Statement:
Consider the following matrix that represents a
problem of investment decision:
States of nature: United of the economy during a year.
Courses of action: types of investment according to
rates of return.
The probabilities of the states of nature are
presented in the following table:
States of Nature Probability
High Growth 0,25
Medium Growth 0,25
Low Growth 0,25
No Change 0,25
The
Expected Loss of Opportunity (POE) to the problem of investment decision is:
Select
one:
a.
The loss of opportunity (POE) is 1.85 must therefore inverirse in investment
funds and/or
purchase of shares.
b.
The loss of opportunity (POE) is 1.55 must therefore inverirse in investment
funds and/or
purchase of shares.
c.
The loss of opportunity (POE) is 1.35 must therefore inverirse in investment
funds and/or
purchase of shares.
d.
The loss of opportunity (POE) is 1.75 must there fore inverirse in investment
funds and/or
purchase of shares.
Pregunta 9.
This
type of question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these
options to correctly
answer the question. The student must select the response and mark it according to
the think is correct.
Statement:
The
criterion of Laplace for situations under uncertainty criteria raises the use
of all the values
that have been obtained previously, we do not despise anything by which we work with
all the fields. The logic that applies is to assign to each value the same
probability (1 / n)
in such a way that all are equal.
According
to the table below, the technology that must be adapted to have the highest expected
value for the presented situation is:
Select
one:
a.
Technology 2 with a value of 709
b.
Technology 1 with a value of 730
c.
Technology 3 with a value of 750
d.
Technology 2 with a value of 706.7
Your
answer is incorrect.
The
correct answer is: Technology 2 with a value of 706.7
Pregunta 10.
Este
tipo de pregunta consta de una declaración y cuatro opciones. Solo una de estas opciones
para responder correctamente la pregunta. El alumno debe seleccionar la respuesta
y marcarla de acuerdo con la opinión correcta.
Declaración:
Considere
el juego (2 * 4) que muestra la siguiente Matriz de pago:
Jugador
B
Jugador
A 1 2 3 4 4
1 4 4 7 7 5 5 -3
2 8 3 10 8
Los
pagos esperados del jugador A corresponden a las estrategias puras del jugador
B.
Los
pagos esperados del jugador B corresponden a las estrategias puras del jugador
A.
El
valor del juego para el jugador B es:
Seleccione
uno:
a.
12/5
b.
17/5
c.
15/3
d.
13/3
Tu
respuesta es correcta.
La
respuesta correcta es: 13/3
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